What's Next for the 2025 Housing Market?

Housing market predictions 2024: What homebuyers should know

In 2024, homebuyers can expect lower mortgage rates, higher home prices, and a lot more competition.
Hopeful 2024 buyers should start preparing now by saving money and paying down debt to improve credit scores.
Look into affordable mortgage programs and down payment assistance to boost affordability.

Home price predictions 2024

Experts generally expect home prices to increase in 2024.

Fannie Mae currently sees home prices rising 2.8% year over year by the end of 2024
Mortgage Bankers Association believes prices could rise as much as 4.1% next year
National Association of Realtors has more conservative expectations and thinks existing-home prices will inch up just 0.7% overall in 2024, with a possible small dip in prices in the second quarter

Mortgage rate predictions 2024

Fannie Mae forecasts a more gradual drop in rates and believes 30-year fixed rates will remain in the low 7% range during the buying season — which typically lasts from spring through early fall — and reach 7.1% by the end of 2024
The MBA's forecast is more aggressive, predicting that mortgage rates could hover in the 6.3% to 6.6% range during the peak homebuying season before falling to 6.1% to close out 2024
NAR predicts rates will be in the upper 6% range for the homebuying season and drop to 6.3% in the last quarter of the year
In its latest forecast, Realtor.com said it believes mortgage rates will average 6.8% overall in 2024 and reach a low of 6.5% by the end of the year

Whether mortgage rates actually trend down in 2024, and by how much, depends on the path the Federal Reserve takes in its fight against inflation.

Investors believe the Fed may start cutting rates next year, which would remove a lot of upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall more substantially. But Fed officials have made it clear they want to see more data on how inflation is trending before they consider taking the foot off the gas. If inflation stops decelerating or speeds back up, the Fed could hike the federal funds rate, pushing mortgage rates higher.

What this means for 2024 homebuyers

If you're hoping to buy a house in 2024, you'll want to start planning now. Next year is going to be better for buyers than 2023 in many ways, but it's also going to be more challenging when it comes to prices and competition.

Lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly improve affordability for borrowers, but with that will come increased demand. This will keep home prices high and likely push them up even further. Finding a home in your price range may become even trickier, and you may need to make a lot of offers before you get one accepted.

Fresno Housing Market September 2023

September 1st

Fresno Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast 2023

The housing market in Fresno and the Central Valley region of California has been a topic of interest for buyers, sellers, and real estate agents. Understanding the latest trends and changes in the market can provide valuable insights for those involved in the real estate industry. In this article, we will delve deeper into the current state of the housing market in Fresno and the Central Valley region and explore the factors driving these changes. The valley encompasses all or parts of 19 California counties including Fresno.

Central Valley Housing Market Trends

The data reveals that as of June 2023, the median sold price stands at $480,000. This figure marks a slight decline from the previous month's median sold price of $485,000, indicating a 1.0% month-to-month change. Furthermore, in comparison to the median sold price of $500,000 recorded in June 2022, there has been a 4.0% year-over-year decrease.

The report continues to unveil crucial sales metrics that provide insight into Central Valley's housing market vitality. For June 2023, the report highlights a 2.4% decrease in sales activity compared to the previous month. Notably, when juxtaposed with June 2022's sales figure the report underscores a substantial year-over-year decrease of 22.9%.

Fresno Housing Market Trends

The Fresno housing market is currently in a buyer's market. The median home price in Fresno is $375,000, which is down 2.6% from last year. Homes are staying on the market for an average of 12 days, which is up from 9 days last year. There were 357 homes sold in June 2023, down from 472 last year.

House Prices and Sales Trends

Competitive Nature of the Market

Fresno's housing market is undoubtedly competitive, with homes typically receiving multiple offers. The Redfin Compete Score™, which rates competitiveness on a scale of 0 to 100, is an impressive indicator of the market's vigor. This score, calculated over the last three months, emphasizes Fresno's competitiveness, with many homes receiving multiple offers, some with waived contingencies. On average, homes go pending in around 12 days, which showcases the urgency and demand within the market.

Rent Prices

As of August 2023, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Fresno, CA is currently $1,315. This is a 15% decrease compared to the previous year. Over the past month, the average rent for a studio apartment in Fresno decreased by -7% to $995. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment increased by 1% to $1,315, and the average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment increased by 6% to $1,600.

The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Fresno, CA is currently $1,600, down 9% compared to the previous year.
The average rent for a 3-bedroom apartment in Fresno, CA is currently $2,195, up 5% compared to the previous year.
The average rent for a 4-bedroom apartment in Fresno, CA is currently $2,595, down 2% compared to the previous year.

For Home Buyers in Fresno

If you are looking to buy a home in Fresno, now is a good time to do it. Home prices are still relatively affordable, and there are plenty of homes to choose from. However, it is important to act quickly, as the market is expected to continue to soften in the coming months. Here are some additional things to keep in mind when considering the Fresno housing market:

The cost of living in Fresno is slightly below the national average.

p>The weather in Fresno is hot and dry in the summer, but mild in the winter.

Fresno is a major agricultural center, so there is a lot of farm work available.

The school district in Fresno is ranked below average.

Overall, the Fresno housing market is a good option for buyers who are looking for an affordable home in a warm and dry climate. However, it is important to do your research and understand the market conditions before making an offer.

Fresno Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

The Fresno housing market has seen its fair share of fluctuations, and as we move forward, it's essential to examine the data and trends to predict what lies ahead. Zillow's insights provide valuable information about the current state of the market, offering a snapshot of where things stand as of June 30, 2023.

Current Market Snapshot:

According to Zillow, the average home value in Fresno is $363,533, which has experienced a slight decline of 1.6% over the past year. Homes are spending approximately 7 days on the market before going pending, reflecting high demand and a rapid pace of transactions. It's noteworthy that while the overall market has experienced a minor dip in value, the median sale-to-list ratio remains at a healthy 1.000, indicating that homes are still being sold close to their listed prices.

Market Dynamics:

The Fresno housing market is showing interesting dynamics in terms of sale prices. As of May 31, 2023, 43.8% of sales are occurring over the list price, demonstrating a competitive atmosphere where buyers are willing to pay more to secure their desired properties. On the other hand, 37.4% of sales are occurring under the list price, suggesting that there are still opportunities for those looking for deals.

Short-Term Forecast:

Metropolitan Fresno, officially Fresno–Madera, CA CSA, is a metropolitan area in the San Joaquin Valley, in the United States, consisting of Fresno and Madera counties. It is the third-largest metropolitan region in Northern California, behind the San Francisco Bay Area and Greater Sacramento. Looking into the near future, the Fresno Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) housing market is anticipated to experience gradual growth. According to the provided forecast data, from July 31, 2023, to September 30, 2023, a modest increase of 1.3% in home values is projected. This signifies a positive trend that could indicate a stabilizing market and growing buyer confidence.

Long-Term Perspective:

Zooming out to a longer horizon, the data suggests that the Fresno MSA housing market could see more significant growth. By June 30, 2024, the forecast indicates a potential increase of 5.4% in home values compared to the base date of June 30, 2023. If this prediction holds true, it could indicate a shift towards a more robust and competitive housing market, potentially offering new opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Fresno Housing Market August 2023

Forecast 2023

August 8, 2023 -By Marco Santarelli

Central Valley Housing Market Trends

This analysis sheds light on the median sold prices of existing single-family homes and sales metrics, providing a deep understanding of the region's real estate dynamics. According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR) report, the median sold price for existing single-family homes in the Central Valley is a pivotal indicator of the market's health and trajectory. The data reveals that as of June 2023, the median sold price stands at $480,000. This figure marks a slight decline from the previous month's median sold price of $485,000, indicating a 1.0% month-to-month change. Furthermore, in comparison to the median sold price of $500,000 recorded in June 2022, there has been a 4.0% year-over-year decrease. The report continues to unveil crucial sales metrics that provide insight into Central Valley's housing market vitality. For June 2023, the report highlights a 2.4% decrease in sales activity compared to the previous month. Notably, when juxtaposed with June 2022's sales figure the report underscores a substantial year-over-year decrease of 22.9%.

Fresno Housing Market Trends

Fresno is the fifth-most populous city in California and the county seat of Fresno County. The city is located in the San Joaquin Valley, about 200 miles southeast of San Francisco. Fresno is known for its agriculture, hot weather, and diverse population. The Fresno housing market is currently in a buyer's market. The median home price in Fresno is $375,000, which is down 2.6% from last year. Homes are staying on the market for an average of 12 days, which is up from 9 days last year. There were 357 homes sold in June 2023, down from 472 last year.

House Prices and Sales Trends

According to data by Redfin, in June 2023, the median sale price of a home in Fresno stood at $375,000. This figure reflects a 2.6% decrease compared to the previous year's prices. This dip in prices might be a result of various factors, such as changes in demand, economic conditions, and the overall real estate landscape. It's important to note that these fluctuations are common in the housing market and can be influenced by both local and global events. Competitive Nature of the Market Fresno's housing market is undoubtedly competitive, with homes typically receiving multiple offers. The Redfin Compete Score™, which rates competitiveness on a scale of 0 to 100, is an impressive indicator of the market's vigor. This score, calculated over the last three months, emphasizes Fresno's competitiveness, with many homes receiving multiple offers, some with waived contingencies. On average, homes go pending in around 12 days, which showcases the urgency and demand within the market.

Rent Prices

The US housing market is headed for the largest sales slowdown since 2011, Fannie Mae says

US home sales are headed for the biggest slowdown since 2011, according to Fannie Mae.

The government-sponsored mortgage finance company forecasted total home sales to slump to just 4.8 million this year, marking the slowest sales environment since 2011. That figure will only improve slightly in 2024, with total home sales expected to hit 4.9 million, Fannie Mae economists said.

The slump in sales is partly being influenced by high mortgage rates, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage rising to 7.18% over the last week, according to Freddie Mac data. That means prospective home buyers are facing the highest cost of borrowing since 2001, which has heavily hindered demand over the past year.

Those dynamics are also taking shape in the backdrop of a weakening US economy, which is poised to enter a slowdown within the first half of next year, Fannie Mae economists predicted. The Fed has aggressively hiked interest rates over the past year to lower inflation, a move experts have warned could drive the economy into a recession.

An economic downturn spells trouble for the overall housing market. Though central bankers will likely pull back interest rates in event of a downturn -- which could influence mortgage rates to fall -- a weakening labor market and a crunch in credit conditions will likely slam housing demand, Fannie Mae said in a prior note.

And the economy is already showing signs of slowing. Optimists who say the US is on track to avoid a recession have pointed to still-robust consumer spending, but current trends look unsustainable when considering incomes, Fannie Mae said. Real personal consumption expenditures jumped 0.6% in July, though real disposable personal income dipped 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the latest credit card transactions data and auto sales data show a weakening US consumer, with car sales falling 4.6% last month. The personal savings rate also dipped to 3.5% in July while wage growth slowed -- a sign that the consumption propping up the US economy is about to slow down.

Revised economic statistics also show a weaker picture of the US economy than previously thought. Real GDP over the last quarter was revised down to 2.1%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, down 0.3 percentage points from the original estimate.

But even if the US avoids a recession next year, the housing market will likely struggle for a "long time," Fannie Mae economists said previously, as the Fed will likely keep interest rates high to keep inflation in check, which will influence mortgage rates to remain elevated. Experts say housing affordability and sales are unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly, likely to around the 5% range.

Understanding Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) in Single-Family Homes
A single-family home may contain an accessory dwelling unit (ADU), also known as a "mother-in-law unit" or "guest apartment." ADUs are self-contained living units with their own private bathroom and kitchen and direct access from the outside. They can be either attached or detached and located above or below grade.

Key Features of an ADU:
Facilities: An ADU includes a full bathroom and a kitchen equipped with cabinets, a countertop for food preparation, a sink with running water, and a stove or stove hookup. Note that hotplates, microwave ovens, or toaster ovens are not considered stoves. Removing the stove does not change the classification of the space as an ADU.

Structure: Only one ADU is allowed per property. It must have a separate entrance for ingress and egress. Simply having a second kitchen does not make a property an ADU.

Regulations: ADUs must comply with local zoning and land use requirements and be typical for the area. Illegal use based on zoning is not permitted.

Guidelines for ADUs:
Fannie Mae: Permits an ADU only when the subject property is a single-family, one-unit property.

Freddie Mac and Non-Agency: Permit a single ADU when the subject property is a one, two, or three-unit property.

The appraisal report must specify whether the ADU complies with zoning and land use requirements (legal or legal non-conforming) and whether it is typical for the area.

Non-Permitted ADUs:
A non-permitted ADU (built without a permit) that complies with zoning may be eligible under certain conditions:

The property must be a single-family, one-unit residence.

The appraisal report must demonstrate that the improvements are typical for the market through an analysis of at least two comparable properties with ADUs also built without permits.

Characteristics of an ADU:
Size: The ADU must be subordinate in size to the primary dwelling.

Features: The ADU must have its own means of ingress/egress, kitchen, living area, and bathroom. A bedroom is not required; studio ADUs are acceptable.

Access: The ADU may include access to the primary dwelling but is not considered an ADU if it can only be accessed through the primary dwelling or if it is open to the primary dwelling with no expectation of privacy.

Examples of ADUs:
A living area over a garage

A living area in a basement

A small addition to the primary dwelling

Determining Property Classification:
Whether a property is defined as a one-unit property with an accessory unit or a two-to-four-unit property will depend on various characteristics, such as:

The existence of separate utility meters

A unique postal address for each unit

The legality of renting the separate dwelling space

Appraisers should describe how they determined whether the separate dwelling area is an ADU or an additional multi-family unit.

Understanding and correctly identifying ADUs is crucial for accurate property valuation and compliance with lending guidelines. By adhering to these guidelines, appraisers can ensure they provide reliable and consistent appraisals for properties with ADUs.